1 00:00:07,124 --> 00:00:11,007 Incubate Pictures presents 2 00:00:14,004 --> 00:00:19,286 In association with Post Carbon Institute 3 00:00:23,028 --> 00:00:30,720 There's No Tomorrow 4 00:00:47,079 --> 00:00:49,000 This is the Earth, 5 00:00:49,057 --> 00:00:51,340 as it looked 90 million years ago. 6 00:00:51,341 --> 00:00:55,087 Geologists call this period the 'Late Cretaceous'. 7 00:00:55,087 --> 00:00:58,000 It was a time of extreme global warming, 8 00:00:58,500 --> 00:01:00,500 When dinosaurs still ruled the planet. 9 00:01:01,100 --> 00:01:02,600 They went about their lives, 10 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,300 secure in their place at the top of the food chain, 11 00:01:07,505 --> 00:01:10,100 oblivious of the changes taking place around them. 12 00:01:11,005 --> 00:01:12,350 The continents were drifting apart, 13 00:01:12,353 --> 00:01:15,353 opening huge rifts in the Earth's crust. 14 00:01:15,704 --> 00:01:18,600 They flooded, becoming seas. 15 00:01:20,037 --> 00:01:22,350 Algae thrived in the extreme heat, 16 00:01:22,387 --> 00:01:23,500 poisoning the water. 17 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:26,300 They died, 18 00:01:26,500 --> 00:01:28,936 and fell, in their trillions, to the bottom of the rifts. 19 00:01:32,027 --> 00:01:34,300 Rivers washed sediment into the seas, 20 00:01:34,500 --> 00:01:36,273 until the organic remains of the algae were buried. 21 00:01:38,058 --> 00:01:41,021 As the pressure grew, so did the heat, 22 00:01:41,021 --> 00:01:41,040 until a chemical reaction transformed the organics As the pressure grew, so did the heat, 23 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,350 until a chemical reaction transformed the organics 24 00:01:43,421 --> 00:01:45,900 into hydrocarbon fossil fuels: 25 00:01:46,021 --> 00:01:49,021 Oil and Natural Gas. 26 00:01:49,109 --> 00:01:51,350 A similar process occurred on land, 27 00:01:51,642 --> 00:01:53,642 which produced coal. 28 00:01:55,029 --> 00:01:57,360 It took nature about 5 million years 29 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:01,543 to create the fossil fuels that the world consumes in 1 year. 30 00:02:02,056 --> 00:02:03,350 The modern way of life 31 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,350 is dependent on this fossilised sunlight, 32 00:02:06,500 --> 00:02:10,153 although a surprising number of people take it for granted. 33 00:02:13,086 --> 00:02:17,950 Since 1860, geologists have discovered over 2 trillion barrels of oil. 34 00:02:18,901 --> 00:02:22,547 Since then, the world has used approximately half. 35 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:29,142 Before you can pump oil, you have to discover it. 36 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,061 At first it was easy to find, and cheap to extract. 37 00:02:33,061 --> 00:02:36,363 The first great American oilfield was Spindletop, . 38 00:02:36,900 --> 00:02:39,037 discovered in 1900 39 00:02:39,037 --> 00:02:39,060 Many more followed. discovered in 1900 40 00:02:39,060 --> 00:02:40,500 Many more followed. 41 00:02:41,032 --> 00:02:43,056 Geologists scoured America. 42 00:02:43,056 --> 00:02:47,100 They found enormous deposits of oil, natural gas and coal. 43 00:02:48,044 --> 00:02:51,224 America produced more oil than any other country, 44 00:02:51,450 --> 00:02:54,029 enabling it to become an industrial super-power. 45 00:02:56,014 --> 00:02:57,981 Once an oil well starts producing oil, 46 00:02:57,981 --> 00:03:01,325 it's only a matter of time before it enters a decline. 47 00:03:02,031 --> 00:03:04,947 Individual wells have different production rates. 48 00:03:05,610 --> 00:03:07,010 When many wells are averaged together, 49 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,521 the combined graph looks like a bell curve. 50 00:03:09,521 --> 00:03:11,379 Typically 51 00:03:11,379 --> 00:03:14,400 it takes 40 years after the peak of discovery 52 00:03:14,420 --> 00:03:16,500 for a country to reach its peak of production, 53 00:03:17,323 --> 00:03:19,700 after which it enters a permanent fall. 54 00:03:20,950 --> 00:03:22,571 In the 1950s, 55 00:03:22,571 --> 00:03:25,350 Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert 56 00:03:25,390 --> 00:03:28,580 predicted that America's oil production would peak in 1970, 57 00:03:28,812 --> 00:03:32,788 40 years after the peak of U.S. oil discovery. 58 00:03:33,050 --> 00:03:35,000 Few believed him. 59 00:03:35,044 --> 00:03:37,060 However, in 1970, 60 00:03:37,060 --> 00:03:39,060 American oil production peaked, 61 00:03:39,060 --> 00:03:41,060 and entered a permanent decline. 62 00:03:42,058 --> 00:03:44,500 Hubbert was vindicated. 63 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:46,157 From this point on, 64 00:03:46,157 --> 00:03:46,325 America would depend increasingly on imported oil. From this point on, 65 00:03:46,325 --> 00:03:49,808 America would depend increasingly on imported oil. 66 00:03:50,056 --> 00:03:53,084 This made her vulnerable to supply disruptions, 67 00:03:53,384 --> 00:03:57,099 and contributed to the economic mayhem of the 1973 68 00:03:57,099 --> 00:03:59,600 and 1979 oil shocks. 69 00:04:01,900 --> 00:04:06,085 The 1930s saw the highest rate of oil discoveries in U.S. history. 70 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:07,958 In spite of advanced technology, 71 00:04:07,958 --> 00:04:12,726 the decline in the discovery of new american oilfields has been relentless. 72 00:04:14,079 --> 00:04:16,906 More recent finds, such as ANWAR, 73 00:04:17,065 --> 00:04:20,899 would at best provide enough oil for 17 months. 74 00:04:22,050 --> 00:04:25,218 Even the new "Jack 2" field in the gulf of Mexico 75 00:04:25,218 --> 00:04:28,098 would only supply a few months of domestic demand. 76 00:04:29,021 --> 00:04:31,766 Though large, neither field comes close to satisfying 77 00:04:31,766 --> 00:04:34,000 America's energy requirements. 78 00:04:36,031 --> 00:04:37,107 Evidence is now mounting 79 00:04:37,107 --> 00:04:40,779 that world oil production is peaking, or is close to it. 80 00:04:41,091 --> 00:04:46,325 Globally, the rate of discovery of new oilfields peaked in the 1960s. 81 00:04:46,900 --> 00:04:47,811 Over 40 years later, 82 00:04:47,811 --> 00:04:49,900 the decline in the discovery of new fields 83 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,500 seems unstoppable. 84 00:04:54,014 --> 00:04:56,500 54 of the 65 major oil producing nations 85 00:04:56,500 --> 00:04:58,983 have already peaked in production. 86 00:05:01,054 --> 00:05:04,553 Many of the others are expected to follow in the near future. 87 00:05:06,095 --> 00:05:07,800 The world will need to bring the equivalent 88 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,100 of a new Saudi Arabia into production 89 00:05:10,150 --> 00:05:10,900 every three years 90 00:05:10,950 --> 00:05:14,027 to make up for declining output in existing oilfields. 91 00:05:15,900 --> 00:05:16,651 In the nineteen sixties, 92 00:05:16,651 --> 00:05:20,319 six barrels of oil were found for every one that was used. 93 00:05:21,100 --> 00:05:22,100 Four decades later, 94 00:05:22,223 --> 00:05:25,521 the world consumes between three and six barrels of oil 95 00:05:25,550 --> 00:05:27,223 for every one that it finds. 96 00:05:29,029 --> 00:05:31,200 Once the peak of world oil production is reached, 97 00:05:31,300 --> 00:05:33,800 demand for oil will outstrip supply, 98 00:05:33,886 --> 00:05:36,271 and the price of gasoline will fluctuate wildly, 99 00:05:36,271 --> 00:05:39,350 affecting far more than the cost of filling a car. 100 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,027 Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent. 101 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,349 Even roads are made from asphalt, 102 00:05:46,350 --> 00:05:47,850 a petroleum product, 103 00:05:47,942 --> 00:05:49,742 as are the roofs of many homes. 104 00:05:51,091 --> 00:05:53,067 Large areas would be uninhabitable 105 00:05:53,138 --> 00:05:57,162 without heating in the winter or air conditioning in the summer. 106 00:05:58,091 --> 00:06:00,931 Suburban sprawl encourages people to drive many miles 107 00:06:00,931 --> 00:06:02,931 to work, school and stores. 108 00:06:04,039 --> 00:06:06,457 Major cities have been zoned with residential 109 00:06:06,457 --> 00:06:08,733 and commercial areas placed far apart, 110 00:06:08,733 --> 00:06:10,600 forcing people to drive. 111 00:06:11,068 --> 00:06:12,866 Suburbia, and many communities 112 00:06:12,866 --> 00:06:16,500 were designed on the assumption of plentiful oil and energy. 113 00:06:19,500 --> 00:06:21,481 Chemicals derived from fossil fuels, 114 00:06:21,481 --> 00:06:23,245 or Petro-chemicals, 115 00:06:23,245 --> 00:06:24,245 are essential in the manufacture of countless products. 116 00:06:28,044 --> 00:06:29,900 The modern system of agriculture 117 00:06:30,100 --> 00:06:32,115 is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, 118 00:06:32,450 --> 00:06:33,450 as are hospitals, 119 00:06:33,650 --> 00:06:34,800 aviation, 120 00:06:34,950 --> 00:06:36,700 water distribution systems, 121 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:38,100 and the U.S. military, 122 00:06:38,224 --> 00:06:42,936 which alone uses about 140 million barrels of oil a year. 123 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:48,000 Fossil fuels are also essential for the creation of plastics and polymers, 124 00:06:48,058 --> 00:06:52,828 key ingredients in computers, entertainment devices and clothing. 125 00:06:54,030 --> 00:06:56,900 The global economy currently depends on endless growth, 126 00:06:56,950 --> 00:07:01,024 demanding an increasing supply of cheap energy. 127 00:07:01,300 --> 00:07:04,083 We are so dependant on oil and other fossil fuels, 128 00:07:04,100 --> 00:07:07,101 that even a small disruption in supply 129 00:07:07,154 --> 00:07:10,405 may have far-reaching effects on every aspect of our lives. 130 00:07:17,079 --> 00:07:22,010 ENERGY 131 00:07:22,900 --> 00:07:26,029 Energy is the ability to do work. 132 00:07:26,029 --> 00:07:36,000 The average American today has available the energy equivalent of 150 slaves, working 24 hours a day. 133 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,095 Materials that store this energy for work are called fuels, 134 00:07:39,095 --> 00:07:42,010 Some fuels contain more energy than others. 135 00:07:42,010 --> 00:07:46,040 This is called energy density. 136 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:50,010 Of these fuels, oil is the most critical. 137 00:07:50,010 --> 00:07:51,100 The world consumes 30 billion barrels a year, 138 00:07:51,528 --> 00:07:54,000 equal to 1 cubic mile of oil, 139 00:07:54,904 --> 00:07:56,050 which contains as much energy 140 00:07:56,404 --> 00:07:58,865 as would be generated from 52 nuclear power plants 141 00:07:58,866 --> 00:08:01,865 working for the next 50 years. 142 00:08:03,008 --> 00:08:07,000 Although oil only generates 1.6% of U.S. electricity, 143 00:08:07,573 --> 00:08:10,573 it powers 96% of all transportation. 144 00:08:12,031 --> 00:08:15,075 In 2008, two thirds of America's oil was imported. 145 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:17,850 Most was from Canada, 146 00:08:17,900 --> 00:08:19,000 Mexico, 147 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,296 Saudi Arabia, 148 00:08:21,296 --> 00:08:22,735 Venezuela, 149 00:08:22,735 --> 00:08:26,000 Nigeria, Iraq and Angola. 150 00:08:27,056 --> 00:08:29,350 Several factors make oil unique: 151 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,250 it is energy dense. 152 00:08:33,029 --> 00:08:34,900 One barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent 153 00:08:34,910 --> 00:08:37,248 of almost three years of human labour. 154 00:08:38,500 --> 00:08:39,600 It is liquid at room temperature, 155 00:08:39,708 --> 00:08:41,600 easy to transport 156 00:08:41,845 --> 00:08:44,051 and usable in small engines. 157 00:08:45,079 --> 00:08:48,324 To acquire energy, you have to use energy. 158 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:53,208 The trick is to use smaller amounts to find and extract larger amounts. 159 00:08:53,208 --> 00:08:55,625 This is called EROEI: 160 00:08:55,625 --> 00:08:59,376 Energy Return on Energy Invested. 161 00:09:01,500 --> 00:09:04,010 Conventional oil is a good example. 162 00:09:04,010 --> 00:09:07,573 The easy to extract, high-quality crude was pumped first. 163 00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:14,600 Oilmen spent the energy equivalent of 1 barrel of oil to find and extract 100. 164 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,500 The EROEI of oil was 100. 165 00:09:19,087 --> 00:09:21,000 As the easy to find oil was pumped first, 166 00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:23,900 exploration moved into deep waters, 167 00:09:23,952 --> 00:09:25,731 or distant countries, 168 00:09:25,731 --> 00:09:28,796 using increasing amounts of energy to do so. 169 00:09:29,091 --> 00:09:32,000 Often, the oil we find now is heavy or sour crude, 170 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,647 and is expensive to refine. 171 00:09:35,900 --> 00:09:39,617 The EROEI for oil today is as low as 10. 172 00:09:40,033 --> 00:09:43,833 If you use more energy to get the fuel than is contained in the fuel, 173 00:09:43,833 --> 00:09:46,768 it's not worth the effort to get it. 174 00:09:50,010 --> 00:09:52,736 It is possible to convert one fuel source into another. 175 00:09:53,500 --> 00:09:54,050 Every time you do so, 176 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,239 some of the energy contained in the original fuel is lost. 177 00:09:59,028 --> 00:10:00,900 For instance, there is unconventional oil: 178 00:10:00,950 --> 00:10:03,417 Tar Sands and Shale. 179 00:10:04,027 --> 00:10:06,600 Tar Sands are found mainly in Canada. 180 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,900 Two thirds of the world's shale is in the US. 181 00:10:11,091 --> 00:10:13,600 Both of these fuels can be converted to synthetic crude oil. 182 00:10:13,610 --> 00:10:17,090 However, this requires large amounts of heat and fresh water, 183 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:18,900 reducing their EROEI, 184 00:10:18,905 --> 00:10:23,015 which varies from five, to as low as one and a half. 185 00:10:24,500 --> 00:10:26,000 Shale is an exceptionally poor fuel, 186 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:29,150 pound for pound containing about one third the energy 187 00:10:29,151 --> 00:10:31,100 of a box of breakfast cereal. 188 00:10:33,033 --> 00:10:34,700 Coal exists in vast quantities, 189 00:10:34,705 --> 00:10:38,317 and generates almost half of the planet's electricity. 190 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,400 The world uses almost 2 cubic miles of coal a year. 191 00:10:41,500 --> 00:10:46,875 However, Global coal production may peak before 2040. 192 00:10:48,083 --> 00:10:50,750 The claim that America has centuries worth of coal is deceptive, 193 00:10:50,750 --> 00:10:55,940 as it fails to account for growing demand, and decreasing quality. 194 00:10:56,059 --> 00:10:58,667 Much of the high quality anthracite coal is gone, 195 00:10:58,667 --> 00:11:03,115 leaving lower quality coal that is less energy dense. 196 00:11:04,056 --> 00:11:06,700 Production issues arise, as surface coal is depleted, 197 00:11:06,700 --> 00:11:10,801 and miners have to dig deeper and in less accessible areas. 198 00:11:11,100 --> 00:11:14,300 Many use destructive mountaintop removal to reach coal deposits, 199 00:11:14,301 --> 00:11:17,047 causing environmental mayhem. 200 00:11:20,014 --> 00:11:22,760 Natural gas is often found alongside oil and coal. 201 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,400 North American discovery of conventional gas peaked in the 1950s, 202 00:11:27,401 --> 00:11:30,283 and production peaked in the early 70s. 203 00:11:31,029 --> 00:11:34,125 If the discovery graph is moved forward by 23 years, 204 00:11:34,125 --> 00:11:38,600 the possible future of North American conventional natural gas production 205 00:11:38,601 --> 00:11:40,000 is revealed. 206 00:11:41,044 --> 00:11:44,792 Recent breakthroughs have allowed the extraction of unconventional natural gas, 207 00:11:44,792 --> 00:11:50,066 such as shale gas, which might help offset decline in the years ahead. 208 00:11:51,044 --> 00:11:54,200 Unconventional natural gas is controversial, 209 00:11:54,202 --> 00:11:57,566 as it needs high energy prices to be profitable. 210 00:11:58,061 --> 00:11:59,750 Even with Unconventional gas, 211 00:11:59,750 --> 00:12:05,229 there may be a peak in global natural gas production by 2030. 212 00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:10,917 Large uranium reserves for nuclear fission still exist. 213 00:12:12,027 --> 00:12:15,833 To replace the 10 terawatts the world currently generates from fossil fuels, 214 00:12:15,833 --> 00:12:19,230 would require 10,000 nuclear power plants. 215 00:12:19,250 --> 00:12:24,300 At that rate, the known reserves of uranium would last for only 10 to 20 years. 216 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:29,083 Experiments with plutonium based fast-breeder reactors 217 00:12:29,083 --> 00:12:31,107 in France and Japan 218 00:12:31,108 --> 00:12:33,440 have been expensive failures. 219 00:12:33,687 --> 00:12:37,737 Nuclear fusion faces massive technical obstacles. 220 00:12:39,022 --> 00:12:40,300 Then there are the renewables. 221 00:12:40,302 --> 00:12:45,353 Windpower has a high EROEI, but is intermittent. 222 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:47,400 Hydro power is reliable, 223 00:12:47,405 --> 00:12:50,856 but most rivers in the developed world are already dammed. 224 00:12:52,035 --> 00:12:54,002 Conventional geothermal power plants 225 00:12:54,003 --> 00:12:56,900 use existing hotspots near the Earth's surface. 226 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,583 They are limited to those areas. 227 00:13:01,029 --> 00:13:02,750 In the experimental EGS system, 228 00:13:02,750 --> 00:13:06,042 two shafts would be drilled 6 miles deep. 229 00:13:06,043 --> 00:13:09,167 Water is pumped down one shaft, to be heated in fissures, 230 00:13:09,167 --> 00:13:12,451 then rise up the other, generating power. 231 00:13:13,091 --> 00:13:15,300 According to a recent MIT report, 232 00:13:15,301 --> 00:13:21,181 this technology might supply 10% of US electricity by 2050. 233 00:13:22,091 --> 00:13:25,333 Wave power is restricted to coastal areas. 234 00:13:25,333 --> 00:13:29,400 The energy density of waves varies from region to region. 235 00:13:31,014 --> 00:13:35,092 Transporting wave-generated electricity inland would be challenging. 236 00:13:35,092 --> 00:13:38,792 Also, the salty ocean environment is corrosive to turbines. 237 00:13:41,004 --> 00:13:42,708 Biofuels are fuels that are grown. 238 00:13:43,095 --> 00:13:46,445 Wood has a low energy density, and grows slowly. 239 00:13:46,445 --> 00:13:49,958 The world uses 3.7 cubic miles of wood a year. 240 00:13:51,437 --> 00:13:52,917 Biodiesel and ethanol 241 00:13:52,917 --> 00:13:57,033 are made from crops grown by petroleum powered agriculture. 242 00:13:57,500 --> 00:14:00,792 The energy profit from these fuels is very low. 243 00:14:02,010 --> 00:14:05,091 Some politicians want to turn corn into ethanol. 244 00:14:05,091 --> 00:14:10,208 Using Ethanol to supply one tenth of projected US oil use in 2020, 245 00:14:10,208 --> 00:14:13,603 would require 3% of America's Land. 246 00:14:15,014 --> 00:14:19,083 To supply one third would require 3 times the area now used to grow food. 247 00:14:20,031 --> 00:14:23,333 To supply all US petroleum consumption in 2020 248 00:14:23,333 --> 00:14:27,080 would take twice as much land as is used to grow food. 249 00:14:28,862 --> 00:14:33,500 Hydrogen has to be extracted from Natural Gas, coal or water, 250 00:14:33,500 --> 00:14:36,917 which uses more energy than we get from the Hydrogen. 251 00:14:36,917 --> 00:14:39,600 This makes a Hydrogen economy unlikely. 252 00:14:42,500 --> 00:14:45,625 All the world's photovoltaic solar panels generate as much electricity 253 00:14:45,625 --> 00:14:47,800 as two coal power plants. 254 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,000 The equivalent of between 1 and 4 tons of coal 255 00:14:51,003 --> 00:14:54,400 are used in the manufacture of a single solar panel. 256 00:14:56,100 --> 00:15:00,000 We'd have to cover as many as 140,000 square miles with panels 257 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,118 to meet current world demand. 258 00:15:02,300 --> 00:15:06,700 As of 2007, there are only about 4 square miles. 259 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,042 Concentrated Solar Power, or Solar Thermal has great potential, 260 00:15:12,042 --> 00:15:16,250 though at the moment there are only a small number of plants operating. 261 00:15:17,900 --> 00:15:19,150 They are also limited to sunny climates, 262 00:15:19,300 --> 00:15:21,500 requiring large amounts of electricity 263 00:15:21,501 --> 00:15:24,433 to be transmitted over long distances. 264 00:15:26,054 --> 00:15:29,458 All of the alternatives to oil depend on oil-powered machinery, 265 00:15:29,458 --> 00:15:34,371 or require materials such as plastics that are produced from oil. 266 00:15:36,037 --> 00:15:38,890 When considering future claims of amazing new fuels or inventions, 267 00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:40,042 ask: 268 00:15:40,087 --> 00:15:44,200 Does the advocate have a working, commercial model of the invention? 269 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,875 What is its energy density? 270 00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:49,958 Can it be stored or easily distributed? 271 00:15:51,004 --> 00:15:53,083 Is it reliable or intermittent? 272 00:15:53,083 --> 00:15:56,000 Can it be scaled to a national level? 273 00:15:56,300 --> 00:15:58,800 Are there hidden engineering challenges? 274 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,095 What is the EROEI? 275 00:16:02,095 --> 00:16:04,700 What are the environmental impacts? 276 00:16:04,901 --> 00:16:07,700 Remember that large numbers can be deceptive. 277 00:16:08,044 --> 00:16:09,900 For example: 1 billion barrels of oil 278 00:16:09,901 --> 00:16:13,868 will satisfy global demand for only 12 days. 279 00:16:15,058 --> 00:16:19,000 A transition from fossil fuels would be a monumental challenge. 280 00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:24,417 As of 2007, coal generates 48.5% of U.S. electricity. 281 00:16:24,417 --> 00:16:27,289 21.6% is from natural gas, 282 00:16:27,289 --> 00:16:30,215 1.6% is from petroleum, 283 00:16:30,215 --> 00:16:32,676 19.4% is from nuclear, 284 00:16:32,676 --> 00:16:34,900 5.8% is from hydro. 285 00:16:35,087 --> 00:16:39,000 Other renewables only generate 2.5%. 286 00:16:40,037 --> 00:16:43,125 Is it possible to replace a system based on fossil fuels 287 00:16:43,125 --> 00:16:45,700 with a patchwork of alternatives? 288 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,700 Major technological advances are needed, 289 00:16:48,900 --> 00:16:51,500 as well as political will and co-operation, 290 00:16:51,900 --> 00:16:53,400 massive investment, 291 00:16:53,542 --> 00:16:55,500 international consensus, 292 00:16:56,050 --> 00:16:59,300 the retrofitting of the $45 trillion global economy, 293 00:16:59,301 --> 00:17:01,668 including transportation, 294 00:17:02,027 --> 00:17:03,000 manufacturing industries, 295 00:17:03,001 --> 00:17:05,083 and agricultural systems, 296 00:17:05,083 --> 00:17:08,700 as well as officials competent to manage the transition. 297 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:11,523 If all these are achieved, 298 00:17:11,523 --> 00:17:14,523 could the current way of life continue? 299 00:17:19,004 --> 00:17:21,009 Growth 300 00:17:21,009 --> 00:17:23,300 These bacteria live in a bottle. 301 00:17:24,008 --> 00:17:25,800 Their population doubles every minute. 302 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,300 At 11AM there is one bacterium. 303 00:17:30,087 --> 00:17:32,100 At 12 noon the bottle is full. 304 00:17:33,081 --> 00:17:35,295 It is half-full at 11.59 305 00:17:35,295 --> 00:17:37,985 leaving only enough space for one more doubling. 306 00:17:38,900 --> 00:17:41,033 The bacteria see the danger. 307 00:17:41,033 --> 00:17:44,056 They search for new bottles, and find 3. 308 00:17:44,056 --> 00:17:47,083 They assume that their problem is solved. 309 00:17:47,083 --> 00:17:49,600 By 12 noon, the first bottle is full. 310 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,136 By 12.01, the second bottle is full. 311 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,820 By 12.02, all the bottles are full. 312 00:17:57,900 --> 00:17:59,928 This is the problem that we face, 313 00:17:59,928 --> 00:18:03,200 due to the doubling caused by Exponential Growth. 314 00:18:06,061 --> 00:18:09,280 When humanity began to use coal and oil as fuel sources, 315 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,700 it experienced unprecedented growth. 316 00:18:14,029 --> 00:18:17,326 Even low growth rates produce large increases over time. 317 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,100 At a 1% growth rate, 318 00:18:20,150 --> 00:18:22,900 an economy will double in 70 years. 319 00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:27,087 A 2% rate doubles in 35 years. 320 00:18:27,087 --> 00:18:29,264 At a 10% growth rate, 321 00:18:29,264 --> 00:18:32,350 an economy will double in only 7 years. 322 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,750 If an economy grows at the current average of 3%, 323 00:18:36,750 --> 00:18:39,750 it doubles every 23 years. 324 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,023 With each doubling, demand for energy and resources 325 00:18:44,023 --> 00:18:47,023 will exceed all the previous doublings combined. 326 00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:52,050 The financial system is built on the assumption of growth 327 00:18:52,050 --> 00:18:55,778 - which requires an increasing supply of energy to support it. 328 00:18:56,700 --> 00:18:58,469 Banks lend money they don't have, 329 00:18:58,469 --> 00:19:00,600 in effect creating it. 330 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,816 The borrowers use the newly created loan money to grow their businesses, 331 00:19:04,816 --> 00:19:06,200 and pay back the debt, 332 00:19:06,204 --> 00:19:09,384 with an interest payment which requires more growth. 333 00:19:10,500 --> 00:19:13,019 Due to this creation of debt formed money, 334 00:19:13,019 --> 00:19:17,616 most of the world's money represents a debt with interest to be paid. 335 00:19:19,056 --> 00:19:22,100 Without continual new and ever larger generations 336 00:19:22,101 --> 00:19:24,200 of borrowers to produce growth, 337 00:19:24,500 --> 00:19:25,871 and thus pay off these debts, 338 00:19:25,871 --> 00:19:28,300 the world economy will collapse. 339 00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:31,148 Like a Ponzi Scheme, 340 00:19:31,148 --> 00:19:34,148 the system must expand or die. 341 00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,450 Partly through this debt system, 342 00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:40,400 the effects of economic growth have been spectacular: 343 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:41,600 in GDP, 344 00:19:41,601 --> 00:19:43,112 damming of rivers, 345 00:19:43,112 --> 00:19:44,150 water use, 346 00:19:44,183 --> 00:19:46,456 fertiliser consumption, 347 00:19:46,456 --> 00:19:47,762 urban population, 348 00:19:47,762 --> 00:19:49,669 paper consumption, 349 00:19:49,669 --> 00:19:51,105 motor vehicles, 350 00:19:51,105 --> 00:19:52,411 communications 351 00:19:52,411 --> 00:19:54,100 and tourism. 352 00:19:55,068 --> 00:19:57,453 World population has grown to 7 billion, 353 00:19:57,453 --> 00:20:01,189 and is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050. 354 00:20:02,041 --> 00:20:05,500 On a flat, infinite earth, this would not be a problem. 355 00:20:06,300 --> 00:20:08,686 However, as the Earth is round and finite, 356 00:20:08,686 --> 00:20:11,686 we will eventually face limits to growth. 357 00:20:13,084 --> 00:20:14,302 Economic expansion 358 00:20:14,302 --> 00:20:18,300 has resulted in increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide 359 00:20:18,301 --> 00:20:19,100 and methane, 360 00:20:19,101 --> 00:20:20,702 ozone depletion, 361 00:20:20,870 --> 00:20:22,833 increases in great floods, 362 00:20:22,833 --> 00:20:25,833 damage to ocean ecosystems, 363 00:20:25,874 --> 00:20:27,703 including nitrogen runoff, 364 00:20:27,703 --> 00:20:30,759 loss of rainforest and woodland, 365 00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:33,110 increases in domesticated land, 366 00:20:33,110 --> 00:20:36,110 and species exinctions. 367 00:20:38,052 --> 00:20:40,200 If we place a single grain of rice 368 00:20:40,201 --> 00:20:42,070 on the first square of a chessboard, 369 00:20:42,070 --> 00:20:45,200 double this and place 2 grains on the second, 370 00:20:46,014 --> 00:20:48,600 double again and place 4 on the third, 371 00:20:49,100 --> 00:20:51,470 double again and place 8 on the fourth, 372 00:20:51,500 --> 00:20:52,650 and continue this way, 373 00:20:52,650 --> 00:20:55,471 putting on each square twice the number of grains 374 00:20:55,471 --> 00:20:57,100 than were on the previous one, 375 00:20:57,101 --> 00:20:59,001 by the time we reach the final square, 376 00:20:59,002 --> 00:21:01,244 we need an astronomical number of grains: 377 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,215 9 quintillion, 378 00:21:05,215 --> 00:21:07,435 223 quadrillion, 379 00:21:07,435 --> 00:21:09,290 372 trillion, 380 00:21:09,290 --> 00:21:11,275 36 billion, 381 00:21:11,275 --> 00:21:13,051 854 million, 382 00:21:13,051 --> 00:21:16,552 776 thousand grains: 383 00:21:17,044 --> 00:21:18,563 more grain than the human race 384 00:21:18,563 --> 00:21:21,563 has grown in the last 10,000 years. 385 00:21:22,900 --> 00:21:23,709 Modern economies, 386 00:21:23,709 --> 00:21:25,407 like the grains on the chess board, 387 00:21:25,407 --> 00:21:27,300 doubles every few decades. 388 00:21:27,700 --> 00:21:30,600 On which square of the chessboard are we? 389 00:21:33,087 --> 00:21:34,759 Besides energy, 390 00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:37,659 civilisation demands numerous essential resources: 391 00:21:37,950 --> 00:21:39,252 fresh water, 392 00:21:39,252 --> 00:21:40,480 topsoil, 393 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:41,316 food, 394 00:21:41,316 --> 00:21:42,126 forests, 395 00:21:42,126 --> 00:21:44,500 and many kinds of minerals and metals. 396 00:21:45,087 --> 00:21:46,150 Growth is limited 397 00:21:46,151 --> 00:21:49,208 by the essential resource in scarcest supply. 398 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:52,313 A barrel is made of staves, 399 00:21:52,313 --> 00:21:54,978 and like water filling a barrel, 400 00:21:54,978 --> 00:21:57,792 growth can go no further than the lowest stave, 401 00:21:57,792 --> 00:22:00,900 or the most limited essential resource. 402 00:22:02,300 --> 00:22:03,833 Humans currently utilise 403 00:22:03,833 --> 00:22:07,300 40% of all photosynthesis n Earth. 404 00:22:08,021 --> 00:22:09,737 Though it might be possible to use 80%, 405 00:22:09,737 --> 00:22:13,500 we are unlikely to ever use 160%. 406 00:22:23,242 --> 00:22:25,900 FOOD 407 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,180 The global food supply 408 00:22:28,180 --> 00:22:29,900 relies heavily on fossil fuels. 409 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,143 Before WW1, 410 00:22:33,143 --> 00:22:35,468 all agriculture was Organic. 411 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,804 Following the invention of fossil fuel derived fertilisers and pesticides 412 00:22:39,804 --> 00:22:42,500 there were massive improvements in food production, 413 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,300 allowing for increases in human population. 414 00:22:48,095 --> 00:22:49,391 The use of artificial fertilisers 415 00:22:49,391 --> 00:22:51,600 has fed far more people than would have been possible 416 00:22:51,601 --> 00:22:54,875 with organic agriculture alone. 417 00:22:56,050 --> 00:22:58,351 Fossil fuels are needed for farming equipment, 418 00:22:58,351 --> 00:22:59,750 transportation, 419 00:22:59,750 --> 00:22:59,814 refrigeration, transportation, 420 00:22:59,814 --> 00:23:00,708 refrigeration, 421 00:23:01,068 --> 00:23:02,557 packaging - in plastic, 422 00:23:02,557 --> 00:23:04,673 and cooking. 423 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,878 Modern agriculture uses land to turn fossil fuels into food 424 00:23:08,878 --> 00:23:10,600 - and food into people. 425 00:23:12,004 --> 00:23:13,920 About 7 calories of fossil-fuel energy 426 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,920 are used to produce 1 calorie of food. 427 00:23:19,300 --> 00:23:25,022 In America, food travels approximately 1,500 miles from farm to customer. 428 00:23:30,083 --> 00:23:31,527 Besides fossil fuel decline, 429 00:23:31,527 --> 00:23:34,896 there are several threats to the current system of food production: 430 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,333 Cheap energy, 431 00:23:36,333 --> 00:23:37,927 improved technology 432 00:23:37,927 --> 00:23:41,349 and subsidies have allowed massive fish catches. 433 00:23:43,091 --> 00:23:45,708 Global fish catches peaked in the late nineteen eighties, 434 00:23:45,708 --> 00:23:48,708 forcing fishermen to move into deep waters. 435 00:23:53,083 --> 00:23:55,716 Nitrogen run off by fossil fuel based fertilisers 436 00:23:55,716 --> 00:23:59,500 poisons rivers and seas, creating enormous dead zones. 437 00:24:00,500 --> 00:24:01,306 At this rate, 438 00:24:01,306 --> 00:24:03,971 all fish populations are projected to collapse 439 00:24:03,971 --> 00:24:05,930 by 2048. 440 00:24:07,091 --> 00:24:11,311 Acid rain from cities and industries leeches the soil of vital nutrients, 441 00:24:11,311 --> 00:24:12,356 such as potassium, 442 00:24:12,356 --> 00:24:13,218 calcium, 443 00:24:13,218 --> 00:24:14,500 and magnesium. 444 00:24:18,027 --> 00:24:20,095 Another threat is a lack of water. 445 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:25,200 Many farms use water pumped from underground aquifers for irrigation. 446 00:24:26,050 --> 00:24:28,891 The aquifers need thousands of years to fill up, 447 00:24:28,891 --> 00:24:30,772 but can be pumped dry in a few decades, 448 00:24:30,772 --> 00:24:32,600 like oil wells. 449 00:24:34,029 --> 00:24:36,911 America's massive Ogallala aquifer has fallen so low 450 00:24:36,911 --> 00:24:40,750 that many farmers have had to return to less productive dry-land farming. 451 00:24:42,056 --> 00:24:46,576 Additionally, The use of irrigation and fertilisers can lead to salinisation: 452 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,600 the accumulation of salt in the soil. 453 00:24:49,300 --> 00:24:51,500 This is a major cause of desertification. 454 00:24:53,078 --> 00:24:56,100 Still another threat is topsoil loss. 455 00:24:56,500 --> 00:24:57,652 200 years ago, 456 00:24:57,652 --> 00:25:00,600 there were 6 feet of topsoil on the American prairies. 457 00:25:01,100 --> 00:25:03,333 Today, through tillage and poor practices, 458 00:25:03,333 --> 00:25:06,333 approximately half is gone. 459 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,273 Irrigation encourages the growth of stem rust fungi like UG-99 460 00:25:13,273 --> 00:25:17,700 - which has the potential to destroy 80% of the world's grain harvest. 461 00:25:19,010 --> 00:25:20,083 According to Norman Borlaug, 462 00:25:20,083 --> 00:25:22,207 father of the Green Revolution, 463 00:25:22,300 --> 00:25:27,902 stem rust "has immense potential for social and human destruction." 464 00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:32,000 The use of biofuels means that less land 465 00:25:32,001 --> 00:25:35,108 will be available for food production. 466 00:25:37,054 --> 00:25:39,200 An area has a finite carrying capacity. 467 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,642 This is the number of animals or people 468 00:25:41,642 --> 00:25:43,800 that can live there indefinitely. 469 00:25:44,083 --> 00:25:47,494 If a species overshoots the carrying capacity of that area, 470 00:25:47,494 --> 00:25:51,700 it will die back until the population returns to its natural limits. 471 00:25:53,029 --> 00:25:54,167 The world has avoided this die-off 472 00:25:54,167 --> 00:25:56,400 by finding new lands to cultivate, 473 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:57,875 or by increasing production, 474 00:25:57,875 --> 00:26:00,980 which has been possible largely thanks to oil. 475 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,638 To continue growth, 476 00:26:03,638 --> 00:26:06,900 more resources are required than the Earth can provide, 477 00:26:07,091 --> 00:26:09,900 but no new planets are available. 478 00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,251 In the face of all these challenges, 479 00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:16,301 global food production must double by 2050 480 00:26:16,301 --> 00:26:16,417 to feed the growing world population. global food production must double by 2050 481 00:26:16,417 --> 00:26:18,900 to feed the growing world population. 482 00:26:21,044 --> 00:26:23,667 1 billion people are already malnourished or starving. 483 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,600 There will be challenges in feeding over 9 billion in the years to come, 484 00:26:28,094 --> 00:26:31,900 when world oil and natural gas production will be in decline. 485 00:26:41,054 --> 00:26:42,600 HAPPY ENDING 486 00:26:45,988 --> 00:26:48,100 The global economy grows exponentially, 487 00:26:48,101 --> 00:26:50,000 at about 3% a year, 488 00:26:50,056 --> 00:26:53,270 consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels, 489 00:26:53,270 --> 00:26:54,900 minerals and metals, 490 00:26:54,901 --> 00:26:56,849 as well as renewable resources 491 00:26:56,849 --> 00:27:00,271 like water, forests, soils and fish 492 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,335 faster than they can be replenished. 493 00:27:03,900 --> 00:27:05,574 Even at a growth rate of 1%, 494 00:27:05,574 --> 00:27:08,200 an economy will double in 70 years. 495 00:27:10,016 --> 00:27:13,058 The problem is intensified by other factors: 496 00:27:13,058 --> 00:27:15,500 Globalisation allows people on one continent 497 00:27:15,500 --> 00:27:18,500 to buy goods and food made by those on another. 498 00:27:19,095 --> 00:27:20,751 The lines of supply are long, 499 00:27:20,751 --> 00:27:23,751 placing strains on a limited oil resource. 500 00:27:26,057 --> 00:27:29,333 We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities. 501 00:27:30,700 --> 00:27:32,800 Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent. 502 00:27:34,033 --> 00:27:36,600 Most Banking Systems are based on debt, 503 00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:40,029 forcing people into a spiral of loans and repayments 504 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:41,800 - producing growth. 505 00:27:43,095 --> 00:27:46,200 What can be done in the face of these problems? 506 00:27:47,029 --> 00:27:48,600 Many believe that the crisis can be prevented 507 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,250 through conservation, 508 00:27:50,251 --> 00:27:51,079 technology, 509 00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:52,568 smart growth, 510 00:27:52,568 --> 00:27:53,800 recycling, 511 00:27:53,801 --> 00:27:55,100 electric cars and hybrids, 512 00:27:55,101 --> 00:27:57,061 substitution, 513 00:27:57,061 --> 00:27:58,300 or voting. 514 00:28:00,091 --> 00:28:01,371 Conservation will save you money, 515 00:28:01,371 --> 00:28:03,696 but it alone won't save the planet. 516 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,250 If some people cut back on oil use, 517 00:28:07,300 --> 00:28:09,900 the reduced demand will drive down the price, 518 00:28:09,901 --> 00:28:12,167 allowing others to buy it for less. 519 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:13,583 In the same fashion, 520 00:28:13,583 --> 00:28:17,400 a more efficient engine that uses less energy will, 521 00:28:17,401 --> 00:28:20,900 paradoxically, lead to greater energy use. 522 00:28:21,900 --> 00:28:22,896 In the 19th century, 523 00:28:22,896 --> 00:28:25,535 English economist William Stanley Jevons 524 00:28:25,535 --> 00:28:28,100 realised that Better steam engines made coal 525 00:28:28,101 --> 00:28:31,000 a more cost effective fuel source, 526 00:28:31,001 --> 00:28:32,797 which led to the use of more steam engines, 527 00:28:32,797 --> 00:28:35,800 which increased total coal consumption. 528 00:28:37,087 --> 00:28:40,200 Growth of use will consume any energy or resources 529 00:28:40,201 --> 00:28:42,400 saved through conservation. 530 00:28:48,029 --> 00:28:48,708 Many believe that scientists 531 00:28:48,708 --> 00:28:51,990 will solve these problems with new technology. 532 00:28:52,500 --> 00:28:55,105 However, technology is not energy. 533 00:28:56,048 --> 00:28:57,900 Technology can channel energy into work, 534 00:28:57,901 --> 00:28:59,500 but it can't replace it. 535 00:29:00,300 --> 00:29:02,393 It also consumes resources: 536 00:29:02,393 --> 00:29:03,042 for instance; 537 00:29:03,042 --> 00:29:04,750 computers are made with one tenth 538 00:29:04,751 --> 00:29:07,708 of the energy needed to make a car. 539 00:29:08,872 --> 00:29:10,250 More advanced technologies 540 00:29:10,251 --> 00:29:12,150 may make the situation worse, 541 00:29:12,151 --> 00:29:14,436 as many require rare minerals, 542 00:29:14,436 --> 00:29:16,200 which are also approaching limits. 543 00:29:17,058 --> 00:29:17,832 For example, 544 00:29:17,832 --> 00:29:21,724 97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China, 545 00:29:21,724 --> 00:29:24,800 most from a single mine in inner Mongolia. 546 00:29:26,500 --> 00:29:28,833 These minerals are used in catalytic converters, 547 00:29:28,833 --> 00:29:30,542 aircraft engines, 548 00:29:30,542 --> 00:29:33,250 high efficiency magnets and hard drives, 549 00:29:33,250 --> 00:29:35,151 hybrid car batteries, 550 00:29:35,151 --> 00:29:36,353 lasers, 551 00:29:36,353 --> 00:29:37,583 portable X-Rays, 552 00:29:37,583 --> 00:29:39,801 shielding for nuclear reactors, 553 00:29:39,801 --> 00:29:41,708 compact discs, 554 00:29:41,708 --> 00:29:43,550 hybrid vehicle motors, 555 00:29:43,551 --> 00:29:45,313 low energy light-bulbs, 556 00:29:45,313 --> 00:29:46,567 fibre optics 557 00:29:46,567 --> 00:29:48,200 and flat-screen displays. 558 00:29:49,083 --> 00:29:52,549 China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals, 559 00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:54,300 as demand soars. 560 00:29:57,083 --> 00:30:00,750 So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help, 561 00:30:00,750 --> 00:30:03,700 as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals 562 00:30:03,701 --> 00:30:05,375 in ever increasing quantities, 563 00:30:05,375 --> 00:30:07,517 including Rare Earths. 564 00:30:08,900 --> 00:30:10,500 Recycling will not solve the problem, 565 00:30:10,501 --> 00:30:11,582 as it requires energy, 566 00:30:11,583 --> 00:30:14,400 and the process is not 100% efficient. 567 00:30:16,010 --> 00:30:19,820 It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled; 568 00:30:19,820 --> 00:30:22,820 a large portion is lost forever as waste. 569 00:30:25,056 --> 00:30:27,600 Electric cars run on electricity. 570 00:30:28,054 --> 00:30:30,557 As most power is generated from fossil fuels, 571 00:30:30,557 --> 00:30:32,600 this is not a solution. 572 00:30:33,095 --> 00:30:37,270 Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production. 573 00:30:37,270 --> 00:30:41,200 Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum. 574 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,333 There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010. 575 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,042 At current growth rates, 576 00:30:49,042 --> 00:30:52,950 this number would reach 2 billion by 2025. 577 00:30:53,900 --> 00:30:57,200 It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long, 578 00:30:57,201 --> 00:30:59,800 regardless of their power source. 579 00:31:01,031 --> 00:31:02,500 Many economists believe 580 00:31:02,687 --> 00:31:05,326 that the free market will substitute one energy source 581 00:31:05,326 --> 00:31:07,400 with another through technological innovation. 582 00:31:08,100 --> 00:31:10,200 However, the main substitutes to oil 583 00:31:10,201 --> 00:31:12,292 face their own decline rates. 584 00:31:13,900 --> 00:31:18,570 Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition. 585 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:21,833 The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report 586 00:31:21,833 --> 00:31:25,350 estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare 587 00:31:25,351 --> 00:31:27,900 for the effects of Peak Oil. 588 00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:31,170 The issues of energy shortages, 589 00:31:31,171 --> 00:31:33,068 resource depletion, 590 00:31:33,068 --> 00:31:34,750 topsoil loss, 591 00:31:34,750 --> 00:31:39,180 and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem: 592 00:31:40,500 --> 00:31:42,500 Growth. 593 00:31:43,700 --> 00:31:46,333 As long as our financial system demands endless growth, 594 00:31:46,333 --> 00:31:49,300 reform is unlikely to succeed. 595 00:31:49,927 --> 00:31:52,542 What then, will the future look like? 596 00:31:54,033 --> 00:31:56,375 Optimists believe that growth will continue forever, 597 00:31:56,375 --> 00:31:57,806 without limits. 598 00:31:59,044 --> 00:32:02,125 Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age, 599 00:32:02,125 --> 00:32:04,100 or extinction. 600 00:32:05,031 --> 00:32:06,417 The truth may lie between these extremes. 601 00:32:07,417 --> 00:32:11,964 It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state, 602 00:32:12,100 --> 00:32:14,792 one in which energy use is a lot less. 603 00:32:16,029 --> 00:32:18,095 This would mean a harder life for most. 604 00:32:18,095 --> 00:32:18,708 More manual labour, 605 00:32:18,708 --> 00:32:20,417 more farm work, 606 00:32:20,417 --> 00:32:24,111 and local production of goods, food and services. 607 00:32:25,079 --> 00:32:28,500 What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future? 608 00:32:29,083 --> 00:32:33,292 Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places. 609 00:32:34,104 --> 00:32:35,762 Start walking or cycling. 610 00:32:36,500 --> 00:32:39,079 Get used to using less electricity. 611 00:32:40,029 --> 00:32:41,100 Get out of debt. 612 00:32:41,900 --> 00:32:42,893 Try to avoid banks. 613 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,300 Instead of shopping at big box stores, 614 00:32:45,301 --> 00:32:48,095 support local businesses. 615 00:32:48,150 --> 00:32:51,600 Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets. 616 00:32:51,601 --> 00:32:55,417 Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food. 617 00:32:55,450 --> 00:32:57,100 Learn how to preserve it. 618 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,000 Consider the use of local currencies 619 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,500 should the larger economy cease to function, 620 00:33:02,500 --> 00:33:05,500 and develop greater self sufficiency. 621 00:33:07,016 --> 00:33:08,500 None of these steps will prevent Collapse, 622 00:33:08,500 --> 00:33:12,500 but they might improve your chances in a low energy future, 623 00:33:13,091 --> 00:33:15,417 one in which we will have to be more self reliant, 624 00:33:15,417 --> 00:33:18,417 as our ancestors once were.